EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise in March 2019
by EUNADICS-AV consortium, January 2019
As the EUNADICS-AV project is now in its last phase, all EUNADICS-AV developments need to be tested and evaluated. For this purpose, the EUNADICS-AV team organizes a demonstration exercise where crisis scenarios will be simulated as realistically as possible and the added value of EUNADICS-AV products will be shown.
Goal of the EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise
The goal of the EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise is to present the tasks of the project participants during aviation-affecting hazardous events. The whole EUNADICS-AV reaction chain will be considered for two selected events: a volcanic eruption and a nuclear attack (artificial examples). Starting from (1) the detection of the hazardous event and (2) the declaration of early warnings, (3) the situation is analyzed by observations which are furthermore combined with models to analyze the situation (4). These results are then used to (5) cost-efficiently re-route airplanes (see figure above). Every step of the whole procedure will be executed with a demonstration of which data would be used in a real event and how the procedures and dependencies would take place.
Activities during the exercise in the Schwarzenberg barracks
The EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise will be conducted in a workshop style. Instead of giving talks and presentations, every sub-topic/ work package, represented in allocated cells, will demonstrate their contributions for the selected events. The cells will present their relevant data and impact during the four phases (Pre-alert, disruption, crisis and recovery). In addition, the cells will provide additional information on the used data sets and model application as well as the scientific background of the procedures. Each cell will have technical equipment, e.g., computers and monitors to demonstrate their role in the EUNADICS-AV reaction chain. Main results will be projected to big monitors and screens.
Based on the products from the EUNADICS-AV scientific partners (cells 2 to 6) the impact on aviation will be simulated by specific end user cells (cells 7 to 15). This includes, e.g., the production of special aviation advisory (e.g. Significant Meteorological Information - SIGMETS) by air navigation service providers (ANSP), cost-based decision making in airline operations centers, re-routing and cancellation of flights by air traffic managers (ATM) as well as respective procedures invoked on the military side and participating airports and ministries.
Overview on participating cells & short description of each cell
The following figure shows the floor plan and location of the different cells that will be set-up in the Schwarzenberg barracks.
Figure 2: EUNADICS-AV floor plan @ Schwarzenberg barracks (Salzburg, Austria)
The number and name of the cells as well as their tasks is summarized in the following table:
|C1||EUNADICS-AV Exercise Lead||Organization of EUNADICS-AV exercise||ZAMG/USBG|
|C2||Observation Infrastructure (WP3)||Collection, tailoring, documentation, and distribution of observational data such as satellite and lidar data, as well as ground and airborne measurements.||CNR|
|C3||Early Warning System (EWS) (WP5)||Declaration of early warning messages and triggering of the EUNADICS-AV modeling chain based on the observational data provided by WP 3.||BIRA-IASB|
|C4||Data integration and assimilation (WP4)||Based on observations, estimates of the source term (location and strength) will be provided. Furthermore, analysis charts are computed by assimilating relevant
observations into numerical models.
|C5||Aviation product development and integration (WP6)||Collects the model analysis and forecast data from the individual modeling groups, which are produced in WP 4, and computes a model ensemble which is passed further to the EUNADICS-AV platform where further output concentration charts and processing for the ATM is conducted.||MF (/ZAMG)|
|C6||Data and product delivery (WP8)||Distribution of relevant data and visualization of different data sets in a harmonized way. Interface between EUNADICS-AV data and end users.||KNMI|
|C7||Aviation specific data usage and analysis (WP7)||Aviation specific use of EUNADICS-AV data, simulation of air traffic (civil/military perspective), flight management, tracer experiment integration, etc.||PLUS|
|C8||User, risk assessment, intern./ext. coop (WP2)||Visitor coordination, user survey during the event and collection of feedbacks and additional requirements.||BRIMATECH|
|C9||Pilots||Demonstration of pilot view and aspects.||
K. Sievers / R. Zopp
|C10||Military/airforces||Demonstration of military application of EUNADICS-AV data/products.||BMLVS|
|C11||Airports||Demonstration of airport view in case of a disaster event.||APs|
|C12||Airlines||Demonstration of cost-based decision making in case of a disaster event.||FK|
|C13||Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs)||Role & application of ANSPs in case of a disaster event.||ACG|
|C14||EUNADICS-AV Crisis Coordination Cell (Cells 1-13)||Coordination of the exercise crisis cell and exercise-specific events.||ZAMG/USBG|
|C15||National Catastrophic Event Crisis Cell||Role & application of national authorities in case of a disaster event.||BMVIT|
Events and phases during the EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise
a) Exercise 1: Volcanic eruption of Etna (*)
Eruption on Sicily with relevant ash transport towards central Europe (Figure 3). Starting from the Etna eruption in Italy the ash cloud disperses over Europe affecting the European airspace significantly. The spatial extension of the ash and SO2 lasts for several days.
Figure 3: Dispersion of the ash cloud for a selected date/time after the artificial eruption of Etna on 18th April 2018
b) Exercise 2: Artificial nuclear terror attack (*) at two locations in Europe
For this test case radioactive clouds disperse in Central Europe over several days. At first the sources are unknown. Based on observations (ground and airborne) the EUNADICS-AV models are applied to trace back the locations and strengths of the sources which are assumed to be a result of terroristic attacks at two different locations in Europe. In the next step the forecast models are used to predict the dispersion of the radioactive cloud and furthermore the impact on aviation will be simulated. For this case real flight measurements obtained from the EUNADICS-AV TRACER experiment will be used.
Figure 4: Distribution of radioactive clouds after assumed terror attacks at two European cities
(*) Please note that the examples are realistic test cases, but artificial examples and the disaster event locations are fictious.
Air traffic simulation and cost optimization
c) The following four Air Traffic Management (ATM) phases will be considered and analysed (see Figure 5)
- Pre-alert: Information is received of an event, which may lead to a possible major disruption of ATM, requiring activation of crisis management arrangements.
- Disruption: Major ATM disruption that impacts ATM operations and which may escalate to a crisis.
- Crisis: State of inability to provide air navigation service at required level resulting in a major loss of capacity, or a major imbalance between capacity and demand, or a major failure in the information flow following an unusual and unforeseen situation.
- Recovery: The operation will go back to normal and an evaluation of the impact will be finalized.
Figure 5: ATM phases considered for the two EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercises volcano & nuclear event
For evaluating the impacts on the air traffic, the air traffic will be simulated by using the NAVSIM simulator and analysed by using Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). A newly developed cost model will be used in the framework of an airline network balance tool (Flightkeys 5D) to cost-efficiently re-route flights affected by the disaster event.
According to the exercise time schedule, cell-specific EUNADICS-AV developments and impacts on ATM will be shown for both, the civil and the military roles within each ATM phase.
Visitors & stakeholders
In order to evaluate and further improve EUNADICS-AV developments, specific users and stakeholders are invited to participate at this EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercises 2019. Therefore, feedback is highly welcome and appreciated!
Overall, because of the attendance of a wide range of interdisciplinary competence ranging from data observers and modelers to simulators, dispatchers and aviation experts from both the civil and military side, the EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercises represent a great opportunity to engage in groundbreaking interactive discussions in the event of an actual disaster affecting the aviation sector.
If you are interested in participating in the EUNADICS-AV demonstration exercise, please don’t hesitate to contact us!
Cells/ scientific: Cells 2-6: Marcus Hirtl (firstname.lastname@example.org),
Cells 7-15: Fritz Zobl (email@example.com)
Visitors/Stakeholders: Florian Lipok (firstname.lastname@example.org)